Mass protests against the regime in Iran, sparked by an economic crisis and a brutal crackdown, have left more than 500 people dead in two weeks. According to Bloomberg, it is possible that the ruling regime in Iran will collapse.
A potential revolution in Iran could seriously alter global geopolitical and energy markets Bloomberg.
According to the agency, the mass protests that erupted two weeks ago due to the economic crisis and currency devaluation continue to gain momentum, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets across the country, despite the government's tough measures and threats.
The United States is closely monitoring the situation: President Donald Trump said he takes what is happening in Iran “very seriously” and that the military is considering “very serious options.” He also announced plans to talk with Elon Musk about the possibility of using Starlink to restore Internet communications, which Iranian authorities have partially blocked amid protests.
According to the agency, in the past two weeks, more than 500 people have died in clashes and more than 10,000 people have been arrested. The unrest even affected the capital Tehran as well as dozens of other cities. The son of the former Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, used social media to call for oil workers to strike, as happened in 1978 before the fall of the monarchy.
The oil market reacted strongly to this situation: Brent oil prices increased more than 5% to 63 USD/barrel, causing investors to fear supply disruptions from this country, one of the largest producers in OPEC. Chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management Arne Rasmussen noted that currently the attention of market participants is completely focused on Iran and fears that the United States could take advantage of the chaos for a change in power.
Experts note that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime is weakening: the economy is collapsing, inflation is rising, and Israeli attacks on Iranian targets and allies continue. However, authorities still have the support of security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a large arsenal of missiles capable of striking targets across the Middle East.
Most analysts believe that the likelihood of a complete revolution remains low. Dina Esfandiyari of Bloomberg Economics believes there could be a change of leadership or a military coup, but the overall system will remain intact. She noted that “the collapse of the regime is now unlikely” and that the country's people fear chaos similar to what happened in neighboring Iraq and Syria.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for dialogue and expressed condolences to the victims' families, but protesters remained skeptical. Meanwhile, many countries in the region fear that the collapse of the regime will lead to chaos, internal conflicts and increased threats to neighboring countries, as the protesters have no single leader and include many ethnic and religious groups.
As VZGLYAD newspaper wrote, the protests in Iran began at the end of December and peaked on January 8, reduce.
Iranian government spent Arrested several leaders of the protest movement.
As Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani stated, those who participated in the massacres were armed are trying inciting civil strife and foreign intervention.
