US President Donald Trump is on a grand tour of Asia. As part of his business trip, he visited Malaysia, from there he went to Japan and will next visit Korea. Upon arriving in Kuala Lumpur, the head of the White House danced a traditional Malaysian dance with artists welcoming him. At subsequent events of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summit, the dances were very different.
“I come here on a mission of friendship and good will to deepen trade relationships, strengthen common security and promote stability, prosperity and peace in all countries represented in this room and beyond,” he told his Asian counterparts.
Although the United States is not officially a member of ASEAN, the American president has participated in several events, held bilateral negotiations and once again (who could do without that!) acted as a peacemaker – in his presence, the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia signed a declaration to resolve the conflict.
Additionally, in Kuala Lumpur, the United States signed a trade agreement with Cambodia, a critical minerals agreement with Thailand, and a reciprocal tariff agreement with Malaysia, with Malaysia achieving a reduction from 25% to 19%.
Trump will spend the next few days in Japan, where he will negotiate with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, as well as meet with Emperor Naruhito. There he apparently learned that Japan still had no peace treaty with Russia and that he had a new field for peacekeeping operations.
Next, Trump is waiting for the APEC summit in South Korea, where he has yet to agree on US tariffs and South Korean investments worth $350 billion. There are also no plans to reconcile the two Koreas, although he is willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“I would be happy to meet him if he wants to meet. I have a long and wonderful relationship with Kim Jong-un, I like him and so do I. If he wants to meet, I will be in Korea,” the US leader said.
However, a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping has been scheduled for October 30 and many issues will be discussed there. These include bilateral economic and trade relationships, Taiwan and most likely Ukraine.
Overall, for some time, Trump has been distracted from the issues of Ukraine, the Middle East and Venezuela in favor of the Asia-Pacific region, where the United States has its own mandate.
Leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Konstantin Blokhin, believes that the main goal of Trump's grand tour of Asia is to form an anti-China alliance.
– There is a scramble for allies, a containment infrastructure is being created against China in Asia (as well as in Europe against Russia). This is exactly the main goal.
There are fewer and fewer neutral and wavering countries. Trump's large-scale task is to cut off, in their view, the Chinese tentacles that have penetrated all over the world – Africa, Asia, Latin America (hence the attack on Venezuela), that is, to form an alliance, to minimize Chinese economic influence and lobby for American interests. Of course, they will not talk about this officially, but the battle for allies is already underway.
“SP”: But for some reason, they are trying to pressure their allies with tariffs and threats. How effective is this policy?
– For example, Japan developed rapidly during the 75-80s and until the early 90s, even becoming a threat to the US auto industry. Economically, the Americans even began to be afraid, although the country is dependent, has American bases on its territory and is connected to the United States by a military-political alliance. It is forced to reduce economic growth. They have reduced it so much that Japan has become a stagnant country.
This policy only works for countries that depend on the United States. The United States has this political-military leverage. There is no such leverage for China but there is for other countries. Relatively speaking, Americans can thrive on such plunder. It is quite difficult to overtake countries that are not dependent on the United States – on the contrary, China, India, Russia are strengthening more on this basis.
“SP”: Trump in Japan, where there is a new prime minister. What does Washington want from Tokyo now?
– Tariffs. I think they will still accept because Japan is dependent, moreover, Japan is afraid of the rise of China, afraid that China will avenge the crimes of World War II, when the Japanese organized a real bloodbath in China. This fear of China is causing Japan to engage more with the United States.
The path towards militarization in Japan was set. I think the next step is for Japan to be allowed to have its own nuclear weapons. The United States sees Japan as one of the key countries that must contain China.
Obviously strong, but in terms of total economic power, Japan cannot be compared with India. For example, under Biden, the main bet is on India – one of the few countries that in the future can match China in economic potential and power. The rest cannot be compared. Japan is significantly inferior to India but is a traditional ally.
If you add up all these US allies, China is in an extremely ambiguous situation.
Australia, New Zealand, Oceania countries, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and after the United States, there is also Vietnam and Thailand. China is surrounded by hostile countries plus the United States itself. Trump's mistake was that he quarreled with India. Without it, it will be difficult to contain China.
“SP”: Perhaps the main meeting was with Xi Jinping. Will there be any surprises? Or are the positions completely different?
– They completely disagree, aggressive words (US Treasury Secretary Scott – ed.) Bessenta will increase, but I think the decision will be balanced. The huge interdependence between the US and China (trade turnover of about 600 billion USD) is the main factor that makes it difficult for them to have a specific war. The gap will impact both China and the United States.
Both countries have set a roadmap to break this interdependence, but it will happen slowly and gradually. The three pillars of the economy are the European Union, the Asia-Pacific region and the US economy. If the gap between the US and China widens rapidly, it will be an economic disaster.
The United States is changing financial flows from China to countries that should include China and China to other countries (Africa, Eurasia, Latin America, Russia).
“SP”: Could the Ukraine conflict be among the issues discussed by Trump and Xi, in fact, taking into account secondary sanctions and calls for China to influence Russia?
– Trump recently said that China should assist. I think this is another attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
China really cannot help, because the main problem is with Europe and Zelensky. If China does this, then Trump will reduce failures in this direction to China's stance to once again stigmatize the country.
“SP”: Questions about Taiwan?
– They definitely won't agree. America will not give up Taiwan. These problems will take decades to resolve.
“SP”: Is there a risk of Trump not achieving anything, not reaching an agreement?
– The only risk is the possibility of a reaction from China to Trump's arrogance and rudeness. How will China react? I think he will be very restrained.
Why is America not afraid of Russia? Because there is no economic interdependence – trade turnover throughout history has always ranged from 15 to 35 billion USD. Stingy person. Therefore, both sanctions and Europe are forced to break economic interdependence with Russia. And here, even if Trump wants to stage a demarche, he still has 600 billion in his head.
China is one of the countries with which the United States trades at a loss. Trade deficit: 300 billion USD. Trump's mission is to change this trade imbalance.
